Urebye mu 2024, ibyo umuntu akeneye mu gihugu byari bike, ibyo akenera byakomeje kuba byinshi, kandi igiciro cy'amabuye y'agaciro ubu cyari kiri munsi y'igitutu cyo kugabanuka bitewe n'uburyo bwo gucuruza no gukenera ibintu bitari byiza. Politiki y'imbere mu gihugu n'iy'amahanga yatanze imbaraga ziyongera buhoro buhoro.
Isuzuma ry'Ibiciro by'Amabuye y'agaciro mu 2024
Ibiciro by'amabuye y'agaciro muri rusange mu 2024 bishobora kugabanywamo ibice bine.
Icyiciro cya mbere: Mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2024, ibyari byitezwe ku bijyanye na politiki z’imbere mu gihugu byagezweho, agaciro k’umukara karagabanutse, igihe cyo kugabanya inyungu z’ikigo cy’imari cya Federal Reserve cyasubitswe kenshi, intego z’inama ebyiri z’igihugu zari zijyanye n’ibyari byitezwe, igipimo cy’iterambere ry’umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu (umusaruro mbumbe w’imbere mu gihugu), igipimo cy’ibura ry’umutungo, n’impapuro mpapuro mvunjwafaranga zidasanzwe za yuan za tiriyari 1 ntibyarenze ibyo byari byitezwe ku isoko, icyifuzo cya nyuma cyari gito, kongera gukenerwa kw’amabuye y’agaciro mu gihugu byari bike ugereranyije n’ibyo byari byitezwe, hamwe n’ubwiyongere bunini bw’amafaranga yoherezwa mu mahanga, umusaruro w’amabuye y’agaciro yo mu gihugu wiyongereye kurusha uko byari byitezwe mu gihembwe, kandi agaciro k’amabuye y’agaciro kari hejuru. Dukurikije uburyo bwo gusubiza ibibazo, igiciro cy’amabuye y’agaciro cyagabanutse vuba kandi vuba ugereranyije n’ibyo byari byitezwe.
Icyiciro cya kabiri: kuva mu ntangiriro za Mata 2024 kugeza mu mpera za Gicurasi 2024, "ibitekerezo byiza" by'inganda, igipimo cy'ibicuruzwa n'ibikenewe cyariyongereye, agaciro k'ibiciro by'ibicuruzwa by'umukara mu gihembwe cya mbere karagabanutse cyane, izamuka ry'ibiciro ku rwego mpuzamahanga ryatangiye kuzamuka muri Mata, igipimo cy'ibicuruzwa by'imbere mu gihugu cyarazamutse kandi kiri hejuru kurusha uko byari byitezwe, munsi y'uburyo bushya bwo gutanga no gusaba ibyuma, inyungu y'ibigo by'ibyuma yariyongereye cyane, igipimo cy'ibicuruzwa by'imbere mu gihugu cyakomeje kwiyongera, igipimo cy'ibicuruzwa byo mu mahanga cyaragabanutse buri kwezi, igipimo cy'ibicuruzwa n'ibikenewe by'amabuye y'agaciro cyariyongereye, hamwe na politiki nshya y'ubutaka "yo ku ya 17 Gicurasi", politiki y'ingoboka zihariye z'imari idasanzwe yo kongera igiciro, igiciro cy'amabuye y'agaciro kiri ku rwego rwo hejuru ubu cyageze ku rwego rushya.
Icyiciro cya Gatatu: Kuva ku ya 23 Gicurasi 2024 kugeza ku ya 23 Nzeri 2024, amabuye y'agaciro yagaragaje imiterere y'ubwinshi bw'ibicuruzwa n'ubukene bw'ibikenewe. Mu gihe cy'igenamigambi rusange, ibikorwa by'isoko byagaragaje ukuri guke, kandi igiciro cy'amabuye y'agaciro cyageze ku rwego rwo hejuru ndetse kigabanuka by'agateganyo. Hamwe n'ishyirwa mu bikorwa rya politiki nziza y'ubutaka mu mpera za Gicurasi n'icyitegererezo cy'ubukene bw'ibicuruzwa byatewe na politiki y'ibyuma bidafite ishingiro, igiciro cy'amabuye y'agaciro gikomeje kugabanuka. Hamwe n'ishyirwa ahagaragara ry'amategeko arambuye yo guhindura politiki y'ubutaka mu mijyi myinshi hirya no hino mu gihugu, hamwe n'ishyirwa ahagaragara ry'Inama Njyanama rya "Gahunda y'ibikorwa byo kubungabunga ingufu no kugabanya karuboni 2024" ku ya 30 Gicurasi, ishyirwa mu bikorwa rikomeye ryo gusimbuza ubushobozi bw'icyuma, no gukomeza kugenzura ikorwa ry'ibyuma bidafite ishingiro mu 2024, icyizere cy'isoko cy'igabanuka rike mu bukene bw'amabuye y'agaciro cyatangiye kwiyongera. Kuva hagati muri Nyakanga kugeza ku ya 19 Kanama, iperereza ry'"imishahara yo kohereza hanze" na politiki z'ibihugu byinshi zo kurwanya ijugunywa ry'amabuye y'agaciro ku byuma byoherezwa mu mahanga byagabanyije agaciro k'icyuma cy'umukara. Abacuruzi bibanda ku kugurisha rebar ishaje, byongera icyizere ku isoko. Inyungu z'amasosiyete y'ibyuma zagabanutse vuba, ibirombe byo mu mahanga byakomeje kugezwaho ibicuruzwa byinshi, ingano y'ibikoresho byo ku cyambu yakomeje kuzamuka, kandi ibiciro by'amabuye y'agaciro byakomeje kugabanuka kugeza ku ya 23 Nzeri.
Icyiciro cya 4: Ibyiringiro bya macro birushaho kwiyongera, icyifuzo cy’imbere mu gihugu gishyigikira ibiciro, ibyiringiro bya politiki y’imbere mu gihugu n’iy’amahanga birasa, kandi amatsinda y’abirabura arushaho kwiyongera. Ku ya 19 Nzeri, Banki Nkuru ya Leta yagabanyije inyungu ku manota 50 kugira ngo hatangire kugabanuka kw’inyungu, kandi ubukungu bwo mu mahanga bwakomeje gukomera; Ku ya 24 Nzeri, Banki y’Abaturage y’Ubushinwa, Ubuyobozi bwa Leta bushinzwe Imari, na Komisiyo Ishinzwe Kugenzura Imigabane mu Bushinwa bagiranye ikiganiro n’abanyamakuru kugira ngo batangize urukurikirane rwa politiki z’inyongera. Politiki y’ifaranga yari ikomeye cyane, aho “imyambi itatu” y’igabanuka ry’ibipimo by’inguzanyo, igabanuka ry’inyungu, no kugabanuka kw’inyungu ku nguzanyo z’amazu zari zisanzweho. Politiki zujuje ibyari byitezwe kandi zirenze ibyari byitezwe, hamwe n’ibyitezwe byo kongera kuzuza amabuye y’agaciro mbere y’iminsi mikuru y’igihugu no kwiyongera kw’ibikenewe nyuma y’iminsi mikuru, byatumye ibicuruzwa byo mu gihugu bizamuka cyane. Hamwe n’icyizere gikomeye cyo ku ya 8 Ukwakira, ibiciro by’amatanura y’umukara byageze ku rwego rw’agateganyo, kandi inyungu z’amatanura y’imbere mu gihugu zari nyinshi cyane, byakomeje kugira urwego runaka rw’ubudahangarwa mu ikoreshwa ry’amabuye y’agaciro. Hamwe n’igabanuka ry’amabuye y’agaciro yo mu mahanga mu gihembwe cya kane, uburinganire bw’amabuye y’agaciro n’ibikenewe mu by’agateganyo byari bito, bituma ibiciro bikomeza kuba hejuru.
Icyerekezo cy'isoko ry'amabuye y'agaciro mu 2025
Umwanditsi yizera ko imiterere y’ubwinshi bw’ibicuruzwa n’ubukene bw’icyuma mu 2025 bigoye guhindura, kandi ko ibiciro bizakomeza kugabanuka.
Ku bijyanye n'umusaruro, ubwiyongere bw'umusaruro w'amabuye y'agaciro ku isi mu 2025 buzaba toni miliyoni 69 (turamutse dufashe ko ibiciro bizakomeza kuba hejuru y'amadolari 100 kuri toni). Hashingiwe ku bipimo by'ubwikorezi, ubwiyongere bwose bw'umusaruro w'amabuye y'agaciro yo mu gihugu mu 2025 buzaba toni miliyoni 46.9, harimo toni miliyoni 21.65 zituruka mu birombe bikuru, toni miliyoni 15.25 zituruka mu birombe bitari ibikuru, na toni miliyoni 10 zituruka mu birombe bikuru.
Ku bijyanye n'ubusabe, ubusabe bw'amabuye y'agaciro yo mu mahanga buzakomeza kugabanuka muri 2025. Bitewe n'iterambere ryihuse ry'inganda n'inganda zikiri kuzamuka mu Bushinwa, inganda z'ibyuma zirimo kugaragaza icyerekezo cy'iterambere rikomeye, rinini, kandi rikomeye. Muri iki gihe, ubusabe buri hejuru kurusha isoko ry'ubutaka, kandi ingorane nyamukuru ziri mu kohereza mu mahanga inganda z'ubutaka n'inganda. Bivugwa ko ubusabe bw'amabuye y'agaciro yo mu gihugu bushobora kugabanukaho hafi 1% bitarenze 2025.
Ku bijyanye n'igiciro, isoko n'ikiguzi cy'amabuye y'agaciro bizakomeza kugabanuka mu 2025, kandi ikigo cy'ibiciro kizakomeza kumanuka kikagera ku madolari 100 kuri toni, aho ihindagurika rya $85 kuri toni rikagera ku madolari 115 kuri toni. Inyongera ya politiki rusange mu gice cya mbere cy'umwaka yari yiganjemo cyane, kandi inyongera y'ibicuruzwa yari nyinshi mu gice cya kabiri cy'umwaka. Ibiciro muri rusange bikunze kuba hejuru imbere n'inyuma, kandi itandukaniro ry'ibiciro hagati y'amezi y'amabuye y'agaciro n'amasoko yo mu gihugu no mu mahanga rishobora kugabanuka cyane. Igiciro nikiregera ku ntera yo hasi, kizagira ingaruka ku mabuye y'agaciro akorerwa mu gihugu n'atari asanzwe hamwe n'ibiciro byo mu musaruro biri hejuru, kandi hazabaho imbaraga ziyongera ku biciro.
Muri make, umwanditsi atanga igitekerezo cyo gukorera mu byiciro runaka, cyane cyane ku bigo bikora ibicuruzwa bifite igiciro kinini gifunze, kugira ngo byongere umwanya wabyo wo kuzigama ibikoresho fatizo mu byiciro byo hasi kandi bizigamire inyungu z'umusaruro.